CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-10-12T03:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-10-12T03:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17947/-1
CME Note: Very faint partial halo W in C2,C3 (front not seen in COR2A b/c of a large overlapping data gap from 2021-10-11T19:23Z to 2021-10-12T09:23Z). Source: eruption from AR 2882 at N16W30 seen in AIA 193/304 starting after 2021-10-12T02:03Z and associated with multiple higher B-class flares from this active region and an EUV wave seen in AIA 193. Arrival indicated by sharp increase in B_total, reaching 9.76 nT at 2021-10-16T01:40Z, accompanied by pileup and speed increase, in addition to field component rotation indicating potential flux rope and momentary temperature rise indicating potential CME arrival. Kp increased to 3 during the 2021-10-16T00:00Z-03:00Z synoptic period in response but decreased afterward. Field remained amplified for two days following arrival, indicating a complex L1 solar wind signature that included both a far-flank flux rope interaction and a subsequent high-speed stream arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-16T00:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-15T13:12Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 512.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 567.340 Acceleration: -0.447429 Duration in seconds: 294536.83 Duration in days: 3.4089911 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.45 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 435.6 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 15/10/2021 Time: 13:12 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 60.15 hour(s)
Difference: 10.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2021-10-13T12:00Z
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